Your guide to the region's top events, mixed with some commentary about life, media, gossip and politics in Washington, DC.
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The Insider: Robert Samuelson
Newsweek financial columnist Robert Samuelson talks about the economy and his new book.
By
Garrett M. Graff
Samuelson thinks today’s problems may be a hangover from 1970s hyperinflation. Photograph by Chris Leaman
As the top financial columnist for Newsweek, Robert Samuelson is on the front lines of the economic wars. His new book, out this month, is a project more than four years in the making. It’s called The Great Inflation and Its Aftermath: The Past and Future of American Affluence, and it couldn’t be more timely. Samuelson, who has lived in Washington since graduating from college, was first hired by Ben Bradlee as a Metro reporter at the Washington Post but was switched to the Business desk as soon as he started—and he’s been covering it ever since. "The rise and fall of double-digit inflation was the most important economic event of the last 50 years. In some ways this financial crisis vindicates the book’s hypothesis because I think this financial crisis is the last great consequence of the decline of double-digit inflations. As inflation dropped in the early 1980s, interest rates also dropped. Stock prices and later housing prices began to rise rapidly. People spent more and borrowed more against their increasing wealth. What was initially justified by declining interest rates degenerated into speculative frenzies, bubbles, and lax lending practices because people thought prices could only go up. We are now suffering the horrific consequences, which, I admit, are worse than expected.
The defeat of double-digit inflation—basically a good thing—involved a paradox. If you just look at the macro picture, things improved. From 1982 to 2007, we had only two modest recessions. But if you look at how individual workers feel, and how individual companies have behaved, workers have become a lot more fearful for their job security. Companies have become a lot more nervous about their survival. The insecurities and anxieties felt by workers and managers helped contain inflation. When things are going well, people don’t want to change anything. People don’t want to ask whether this is too good to be true. In the late ’90s there were a lot of people—including me—who said, “This stock market is crazy. It simply is too high and cannot last.” It was very hard for government to step in and say, “This is unreal.” Alan Greenspan has come under a lot of criticism, some of it legitimate, but remember that in the mid-’90s he did talk about irrational exuberance. That affected the stock market for a couple of days, and then people just went on their merry way. So when things are going well, it’s very difficult for society to regulate and control it. The same was true of the housing bubble. This process of globalization has run ahead of our understanding of it. We’re discovering that a lot of these interconnections were not even well understood by the technicians, economists, bankers, and regulators. We’re at risk of having a system we can’t control because we don’t understand it. One of the problems today is that the things we ought to do in the long term are not necessarily related to the things we need to do in the short term. What I think is going to happen, regardless of who is elected president, is that there’s going to be a lot of spending next year and a lot of tax cuts. In the short run, those things may be justified—but in the long run it’s clear we have to raise taxes. We also should be cutting back spending, and we need to reduce the benefits for retirees. We need to raise eligibility ages; we need to make these programs—Social Security and Medicare—more means-tested. Otherwise we’re going to have to either gut the rest of the government to finance spending for Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid or we’re going to see taxes go up very sharply or we’re going to see deficits go to unsustainable levels. What is happening today is so outside the realm of experience of everybody that I think it’s very difficult to find major fault, particularly at the Federal Reserve. They acted very quickly and made dramatic departures from past policies to accommodate this rapidly evolving situation. I’m no smarter than anybody else, but I think the betting will be that we’ll go through a recession—and nothing worse. But who knows?" This article first appeared in the November 2008 issue of The Washingtonian. For more articles from that issue, click here. More>> Capital Comment Blog | News & Politics | Society Photos
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Comments
7 At the end of the air filled with the desire to shop, windows everywhere Sale, the people involved in purchasing again and again the tide. As long as you look accurate, it is cheaper to buy a variety of favorite long can the good goods. can be concentrated in such raids without reckoning wanton procurement, but also easy to lose, so their reduced to "junk woman".
shopping, celebrities have always charge the former, experience is particularly rich . The stars of the shopping in Hong Kong after discount on large numbers of summer vacation in Hong Kong were more strongly into China. But the star, after all, not a fashion designer, was at a higher level, the reason gold, this issue also invite more place the most active designers and fashion people, personally surgeon, to help you sort out the change of the fashion pulse of new and old, peeling silkworm spinning, out of season rush to buy discount focus and dedication from their losses and gains experience.
Cecilia
raids Location: Times Square, Causeway Bay shopping
focus: the rebate, is cost-effective to buy cosmetics. In addition, Times Square, selling all kinds of girls clothing all year round, it is suitable for Cecilia’s style.
link Beijing: China Friendship Department Store < br> bag bargains key: even if a discount, the top big things, or very expensive. Therefore, learning to Cecilia, a down to meet their own tastes, purchasing power of local girls shopping for their installed it.
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raids Location: Pacific Place shopping
focus: Jessica, said: "buying things, the mood is most important, a discount is still followed. discount when the mind to keep the wrong reason will not buy a shirt. "seasonal, the Pacific Place and other brands such as D & G will hit 5 discount, shoppers are crazy. Jessica shopping frenzy does not belong to the girl, she likes to enjoy a leisurely way to try on clothes in the environment.
Link Beijing: Palace Hotel
bag bargains focus: a world-class brand of seasonal goods, but also enjoy five-star shopping environment. discount store dressing room to be some period of long lines, very annoying.
Carina Lau
mop Location: Central, The Landmark
shopping points: famous discount, the Carina is often the first time in the Landmark in Central to buy some clothes. waiting there almost every day, paparazzi photographed celebrities visiting the shop shapes and sizes. If there were paparazzi be exposed Shu Qi in the Landmark bought the former boyfriend Dawn LV purse.
link Beijing: International Trade
bag bargains focus: mature women have the economic strength of the F1 layer of the LV,cheap jordan shoes, Max & Mara and other big discount, absolutely immense interest.
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raids Location: City Plaza shopping
points: Shirley admitted that discount when buying more for the family, prefer the design of flu in some famous small jewelry, see the chic, will be more to buy some souvenirs. Shirley that time to the mid-range priced discount shopping, more affordable, cost-effective.
link Beijing: Oriental Plaza
bag bargains focus :louis vuitton handbags There are many new jewelry store in particular is worth watching.nike shoes
Tsang
raids Location: Causeway Bay shopping Crawford
key: Do not look to see Eric Tsang, in fact, but his authentic "human fashion . "discount in August each year seven seasons, Crawford boutique often as low as 6 fold, Eric Tsang usually discounted selection of men’s time,replica IWC, including attending events to wear suits, usually wear casual clothes when shopping and so on.
Link Beijing: Lufthansa
bag bargains focus: Lufthansa Men do not fancy, but definitely has the quality of content, clothing brands such as BOSS, Xenia class brand, should be the successful man not to be missed Taobao focus.
Anthony Wong
raids Location: Causeway Bay SOGO SOGO shopping
focus: shopping is clearly not just a small girl’s patent, even if it rough as Anthony Wong’s "character man" is also keen to Shopping, I once SOGO SOGO Department Store in Causeway Bay and saw Anthony Wong, accompanied by the Assistant buy clothes. He admitted that from time to time the discount SOGO activities is to attract one of the reasons he went. Anthony Wong preference with punk-style clothing, hand-painted T-shirts and with nail jeans will let Anthony Wong put it down.
link Beijing: SOGO, Parkson
bag bargains key: do not discount timing activities,mbt shoes give you a lot of value for money windfall.
Ekin Cheng
mop Location: Sai Yee Street, (Shoes Street)
shopping focus: not so in love with actress and cosmetics to buy pretty dresses everywhere, like the movement of Ekin Cheng usually buy more emphasis on sports and leisure shoes, so Sneaker Street in Mong Kok he must be free to visit the place. Shoes Street stores selling NIKE, ADIDAS and so on of the newest sports and leisure shoes are usually sold at prices of seven Bazhe it off for the birth does not know how frugal is Ekin Cheng It is a very economical choice, so he does not shoot as long as it will go to buy a few pairs of sneakers Street favorite shoes home.
link Beijing: SOGO Oriental Plaza Sports 100
bag bargains Focus: Sports class clothing. Movement like you, discount,mbt shoes be sure to buy some more.
She Poetry Man
raids Location: Harbour City, Tsim Sha Tsui shopping
points: Poetry Man She always busy filming, not so ordinary girl visit this store a lot of time, so she likes to Harbour City, you can also see the works of famous fashion designers and international famous brand stores, discount focus when, against a lot of things to be able to Amoy.
Link Beijing: World all Stores
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Posted by: sneakercn, Jun 29, 2011 06:37:11 AM
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