Today marks the second-to-last day of March, so there’s really only one thing that matters in the presidential race this week: Tomorrow’s midnight first quarter fundraising deadline. All the campaigns are making their big last-hour pushes right now, with final emails going out to their lists, and finance staff, donors, and backers calling their friends to ask for more money.

This weekend’s deadline, which will have the numbers reported to the Federal Election Commission by mid-April, will be a critical early test of a candidate’s viability to compete in what will be the most expensive presidential campaign in U.S. history—of course at least two candidates, Evan Bayh and Tom Vilsack, have already been forced from the race because of money. Hillary Clinton laid the framework in an email this morning: "Until next year, when people making choices in primaries and caucuses, there may not be a bigger day in this campaign than the next 24 hours."

Hotline's political genius-in-residence Marc Ambinder this morning reports his final predictions of how much each candidate will raise:

* Sen. Hillary Clinton will raise between $23M and $30M.
* Sen. John McCain will raise between $26M and $32M.
* Sen. Barack Obama will raise between $20M and $25M.
* Ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney will raise between $19M and $21M.
* Ex-Sen. John Edwards will raise between $13M and $17M.
* Ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani will raise between $12M and $15M.

Each candidate hopes to exceed the media's expectations and thus be seen as stronger than initially thought. Thus the campaigns have spent the last two weeks furiously lowering their own expectations while raising the bar for everyone else. As John McCain, who has raised tens of millions over the course of his political career, put it tongue-in-cheek this week on the Today Show, his fundraising is just going to be terrible: "I'm not very good at it. I hope to get better."

Of course, there’s a second much more important question that’ll be answered in these first quarter reports: How much money did the campaigns manage to save? The most expensive race also means the campaigns have been spending money a furious clip—Mitt Romney already has put ads on the air; many campaigns boast scores of staff across a dozen states or more—and there’s still ten months before any votes are cast.

Stay tuned.

What: The Media Research Center's 20th Anniversary Gala

Where: Grand Hyatt

When: Thursday, March 29, 2007, 6 p.m. until late

Who: A thousand-plus conservative activists, funders, staff from various right-wing organizations, and a number of bloggers—all in a mish-mash of attire for the annual black tie optional gathering. While three of the night's big names, Ann Coulter, Sean Hannity, and Joe Scarborough couldn't make it, the room held most of the well-known conservative talk show hosts, who all paid tribute to Center's founder, Brent Bozell, over the course of the evening.

Food: Spinach and frisee salad, grilled beef tenderloin and salmon roulade, and a flourless chocolate cake.

Drink: Many bottles of Columbia Crest wine.

Scene: When James Carville asked where his wife was going last night, Mary Matalin explained, she whispered "vast right-wing conspiracy" and such was the scene at the DisHonors Awards ceremony for the "most outrageously biased liberal reporting of the year."

The evening's tone was set when emcee Cal Thomas, who was introduced as the most syndicated columnist "in the nation, hemisphere, world, solar system, and the universe," explained that the evening was "carbon neutral" because everyone in the room arrived in vehicles powered by the "chicken droppings Al Gore's been peddling in recent days." He joked that the evening's sponsors included the Guantanamo Bay Gift Shop and Chevrolet, "the car Saudi Arabian women would drive if they could drive."

Video montages showed clips of the evening's award nominees, none of whom, unsurprisingly, were in the audience to accept the awards in person. In fact, as one presenter joked, no one has ever accepted an award in person in the event's history.

The first award of the night, the "God I Hate America Award" went to New York Times Publisher Arthur "Pinch" Sulzberger, Jr., for a speech he gave last year at SUNY-New Paltz's commencement. Neal Boortz presented the award and after butchering the pronunciation of Pinch's name, he looked up at the crowd, "If I'm mispronouncing his name, ask me later if I really care."

Former Maryland senate candidate Michael Steele accepted the award for Pinch to a standing ovation and then presented an improptu lecture on why the GOP lost in November: The party had lost the nation's honor and trust. "When we walk away from that, America responds," he said, explaining that he was confident the party would get the keys to the Kingdom back again soon and that Steele himself was looking forward to running again.

CBS's Katie Couric won the "Dan Rather Memorial Award for the Stupidest Analysis" for her interview with Condi Rice last fall where she asked the secretary of state, "To quote my daughter, 'who made us the boss of them?'" G. Gordon Liddy accepted the award for her, saying, "You are honored by the enemies you have. I can safely say that one of my enemies is perky Katie Couric."

Rosie O'Donnell beat out Bill Maher and "has-been entertainer" Harry Belafonte for the "The I'm Not a Political Genius But I Play One on TV" Award. In accepting a large pointy award for Rosie O'Donnell, the Wheel of Fortune's Pat Sajek explained, "I don't know if she has room for this, but I'd be happy to take it over to her and show her where to put it."

CNN's Jack Cafferty won the "Tin Foil Hat Award for Crazy Conspiracy Theories" and the award was "accepted" via video by Osama bin Laden, whose dubbed video played on the room's four big screens. Speaking through a bad Punjabi translator, "bin Laden" explained that he calls CNN the "Cave News Network" because "their audience is so small it could fit in my cave."

MSNBC's Keith Olbermann was perhaps the biggest loser last night: Nominated in three of the five categories, he failed to win a single award. Neal Boortz relished going after Olbermann, calling him "MSNBC's answer to a relief tube," a "void surrounded by a sphincter muscle," and said, "You know you've done something right when that footstool attacks you on national TV."

Boortz on Bryant Gumbel: An "arrogant little jock-sniffer" and an "obtuse mindless person."

Boortz received much applause for this line on Bill Clinton's administration: "Don't we all still wonder what Sandy Berger stole from the National Archives?"

As the opening joke by Thomas set the stage, Al Gore was also the butt of many jokes. From Mary Matalin on Gore: "Pluto wasn't large enough to be a planet but Al Gore is." From Pat Sajek on Gore: "When he gets his shoes shined he has to take the guy's word for it."

Ratings:
Bold Face Names: 3 (out of 5)
Swankiness: 4 (out of 5)
Food/Drink: 3 (out of 5)
Exclusivity: 3 (out of 5)

Total Score: 13 (out of 20)

More photos below.

Fox News bureau chief Brian Wilson, the head of the Radio/TV Correspondents Association, promised that last night's 63rd Annual Radio/TV Correspondents Dinner would be remembered for years to come—and thanks to some rapping by Karl Rove, he might just be right. It is certainly the only time that a President of the United States has ever uttered the phrase "sleek hairless pecs," this time in reference to Barack Obama's recent run-in with paparazzi in Hawaii.

When two of the improv comedians from "Whose Line is It Anyway?" took the stage last night, the night took a dramatic turn. After a skit that forced Brian Williams to make accompanying sound effects, guess who ended up getting plucked from the audience "randomly"? None other than Karl Rove, who identified himself as "Peter Fitzgerald," before correcting himself: "I mean Patrick." Rove provided the centerpiece of a rap skit where the comics made fun of his self-professed hobbies of stamp collecting and ripping the heads off small animals while Rove danced, shouted "I'm M.C. Rove" and NBC's David Gregory provided the most awkward back-up dancing ever seen.

The night's most moving moment came as the David Bloom Award was presented. Named after an NBC correspondent who died while covering the invasion of Baghdad in 2003, the award has become an annual reminder of the toll of the conflict in the Middle East on journalism—last year's award went to Bob Woodruff, who was still in the hospital recovering after narrowly escaping death on a Baghdad patrol when a bomb ripped through his vehicle. This year Woodruff was present to present the Bloom Award to Fox News' Steve Centanni and his cameraman Olaf Wiig, who were kidnapped in Gaza and held for nearly two tense weeks. Given the way people have earned the Bloom Award since its inception, let's hope that no one does anything this year that warrants receiving it next year.

President Bush also managed to get a moving moment in amid jokes about Dick Cheney shooting someone. The room warmly responded to his prayers for White House Press Secretary Tony Snow, who was diagnosed with cancer this week and whose customary seat at the head table was filled by a radiant-looking Dana Perino. As President Bush said, "Tony, we're all looking forward to the day you come back to the White House."

Our full report is below.

What: Cancer Schmancer Movement pre-launch fundraiser and cocktail party.

Where: The home of Christine Warnke, chair of the D.C. Commission for Women.

When: March 27, 2007 6:30-8:30 pm

Who: Washington lawyers and business folk, The Hill's publisher Francine McMahon, actress and Cancer Schmancer founder Fran Drescher, and an appearance by Senator Arlen Specter.

Food: Finger foods and snacks brought cautiously through the guests on large platters. Jumbo shrimp, mini-ham and Dijon mustard biscuit sandwiches, crackers topped with pesto, tomato and mozzarella, fresh vegetables and hummus.

Drink: Red and White wine, lemonade and sparkling flavored water.

Scene:An intimate group of 50 co-workers, friends and acquaintances of those who work for and support the "Cancer Schmancer" Movement were crowded onto the brick terrace of the two-story home near American University. Though the weather was nice, there was hardly space to reach out and grab a mini sandwich as it passed. Attendees introduced themselves to anyone who was facing them, leading to conversations about hometowns, politics, and—more frequently—loved ones lost to cancer.  Pennsylvania's Specter popped in long enough to have his photo taken, and was escorted out again.

The Speech: Drescher jumped into her speech with her own cancer survival story. She got serious about the politics of cancer education and funding, more cancer screening tests, and the removal of carcinogens from women's products. Though many parts of the speech came straight from the Cancer Schmancer presentation kit, she seemed determined to spread the word about late cancer diagnosis and make Congress “put their money where their mouth is.”  She kicked a couple of jokes in as well, bringing giggles from the mostly-female crowd.  After describing her two-year fight with doctors who persisted she was too young for uterine cancer, Drescher said, “I'm finally too young and too thin for something, and I get it anyway!” The Cancer Schmancer non-profit organization will be officially launched in June. Its purpose, organizers explained, is to raise cancer awareness and change health policy to better promote diagnosis, treatment, and prevention of womens' cancers through lobbying. The movement was spawned by Drescher's 2003 novel of the same name.

Fran to the Rescue:  When one attendee suddenly felt faint, Drescher sprang into motherly action asking: “Have you eaten today? Have you had any protein today?”  After it was clear that the woman was all right, Fran announced “Now there's a girl who knows how to make an exit!” accompanied by that classic nasal laugh.

Ratings:
Bold Face Names: 3 (out of 5)
Food/Drink: 3 (out of 5)
Swankiness: 3 (out of 5)
Exclusivity: 3 (out of 5)

Total Score: 12 (out of 20)

As official Washington reeled from a second high-profile cancer diagnosis in less than a week—that of White House Press Secretary Tony Snow—health experts and journalists gathered on the Hill last night to celebrate a story of survival. At the Hill's Sonoma restaurant, U.S. News & World Report Health Editor Bernadine Healy, M.D., and friends marked the publication of new book, Living Time: Faith and Facts to Transform Your Cancer Journey, which covers her own journey following her 1999 diagnosis of a brain tumor.

Healy, a former director of the National Institutes of Health and overseer of the National Cancer Institute, was working to expand Ohio State's cancer genetics program at the time of her diagnosis. She told the crowd at the book party that her book idea started with a column she wrote for U.S. News & World Report, which her literary agent, Gail Ross suggested she expand into a book.

As part of her work, Healy ended up on Hardball with Chris Matthews last week, where she offered the following wisdom: "You’re a cancer survivor the moment you get that cancer diagnosis," Healy said.  "You’re a survivor of cancer. That cancer has been percolating there in your body. You may not have not known it. It’s been diagnosed. You start on therapy, which is going to knock it down or knock it out entirely. During that whole treatment phase, you are a survivor and you have to think of yourself as a survivor. This is the living time for you. It’s not a dying time."

Anthony Shadid’s Middle East is as intimate as it is unfriendly, a place where the booms of Katyusha rockets overlay the muttered prayers of prostrate mourners, a place where brilliant flags fly atop razor-wire fences, a region divided along religious lines but united by a growing mistrust of the United States.

Shadid’s dispatches from Baghdad for the Washington Post in the first weeks of the Iraq War—remarkable for their insight into the effect of the fighting on the ordinary lives of Iraqis—earned him a Pulitzer Prize. He adapted much of that reporting for his 2005 book, Night Draws Near: Iraq’s People in the Shadow of America’s War, which New York Times critic Michiko Kakutani called “a harrowing portrait of life in postwar Iraq.”

In one astringent Post story from August 2003—the contents of which are part of the book’s narrative—Shadid recounted the experience of an Iraqi father forced to execute his own son when villagers discovered that the younger man had aided American forces in an operation that left four villagers dead. The village gave the father an ultimatum: Kill him or we’ll kill the rest of your family.

Shadid wrote: “In his simple home of cement and cinder blocks, the father, Salem, nervously thumbed black prayer beads . . . . ‘I have the heart of a father, and he’s my son,’ Salem said. ‘Even the prophet Abraham didn’t have to kill his son.’ He dragged on a cigarette. His eyes glimmered with the faint trace of tears. ‘There was no other choice,’ he whispered.”

Last July, after Hezbollah militants in Lebanon crossed the Israeli border to kidnap two Israeli soldiers, Shadid traveled to Beirut to cover the aftermath. A swift and forceful response by the Israeli government followed, reducing to rubble much of the infrastructure in the south and as far north as the Beirut airport. Shadid captured the explosions, troop movements, and responses of Hezbollah’s leader, Hasan Nasrallah, and Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, but also the fear and confusion in the communities, dating back to Biblical times, that were destroyed in the discord.

When 37 children were killed by rockets launched at a shelter in Cana—the town where the story of Jesus’s turning water into wine took place—Shadid reported that as a bulldozer plowed through the rubble, “Rescuers surged, then one emerged, his back slightly stooped. Cradled in his arms was the 27th victim pulled from a partially buried room. The victim’s name was Abbas Hashem, and he was 1 year old. His blue pacifier still dangled from his green tank top. Behind the pair was a book, tossed by the blast into a splintered olive tree. ‘The Keys to Heaven,’ its title read.”

For his stories from Lebanon, Shadid is the favorite to win this year’s Pulitzer Prize in international reporting, to be announced on April 16.

But it’s clear from these stories that Shadid’s motivation and greatest reward aren’t the accolades. Something more personal is going on, more elemental to his life.

Read below for more. 

Left-leaning television pundit Chris Matthews sat tall at Nathans Q&A Cafe on Wednesday, March 27. Matthews has lost thirty pounds since his Type II diabetes diagnosis in November, but he has not lost any of his fast-talking proclivities. Nathans Restaurant owner and former television journalist Carol Joynt barely achieved her goal of asking fifteen questions over the course of the roughly one-hour interview.

“Chris? Chris?” she’d ask, often to no avail.

The irony of the situation came to a point when Matthew began to discuss Hillary Clinton’s candidacy. “You gotta be heard because men just keep talking,” he said after he mentioned the “big, deep, green, scaly, horny monster” of misogyny that might rear its head at at the polls.

“Men are all whipped into silence on this topic,” he said.  He also noted that women’s voices often scale upwards when they try to be heard in a debate, and he conjectured that men might weary of Mrs. Clinton’s sometimes strident tones. “Not 8 years,” he imagined men thinking.

“When a man yells, it’s entertainment. When a woman yells, it’s Eleanor Clift,” Matthews said.

Jabs aside, Matthews praised Clinton and described her as “physically healthy, physically radiant.... There’s a halo of magic around her.”

Matthews, who might host the first presidential debate, conjectured about several candidates. He named Rudy Giuliani as the likely Republican primary victor and dismissed John McCain on the grounds that, “Republicans don’t like mavericks. They like leaders.”

Matthews used a scene from the the film 1984 that has since been used to plug Apple computers and Obama’s presidency as a lens to describe the Republican/Democrat ideological divide. “Democrats really do like chaos,” he said. “Every Democrat instantly roots for the kid with the hammer,” he claimed, while Republicans side with the large face on the screen. “McCain is the kid with the hammer,” Matthews said.

But when it came to the final word on picking presidents, Matthews advised looking at Irish betting odds before looking at political polls. He read a series of odds aloud, and called for “a new kind of quiz show” where pundits must bet on their opinions and give "something like $1,000" up front for a seat at the table. Matthews believed it would create, “punditry that matters.”

In the meantime, Matthews will talk on, guiding people to the bookies and the polls to put their money where their mouths are.

More sound bites and image after the jump.