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Why Patrick Mara Is the DC Republican Party’s Last, Best Hope

He could win a seat on the city council in the special election—but only with a strong GOP voter turnout.

Patrick Mara has one clear path to victory in the special election one week from today for the city council at-large seat: a heavy Republican turnout.

If more than 5,000 registered Republicans show up at the polls next Tuesday and punch his ticket, Mara will win. If GOP voters fail to show up—because of work or hangnails or cocktails—Mara will lose. This is the Republicans’ seat to lose. Simple as that.

This is NOT an endorsement of a candidate; Elissa Silverman, Paul Zukerberg, and Matt Frumin would make fine council members. This is a strong endorsement of the two-party system. Call it political arithmetic in blue and red. Political consultants expect a low turnout for this election to fill the seat vacated when Phil Mendelson moved up to council chair. They figure fewer than 50,000 voters will cast ballots, and 15,000 votes could bring victory.

To get to 15,000, Mara needs at least 5,000 Republicans. If you call them, will they come? Mara is the “establishment” candidate. The Washington Post has endorsed him twice. He’s the favorite of the Northwest Current. The DC Chamber of Commerce backs Mara. Business groups are paying for last-minute mailings on his behalf.

Polls and observers predict the race will come down to a contest between Mara and Anita Bonds, the veteran Democratic activist with ties to Marion Barry. I see it as a two-party race: Democrats vs. Republicans.

This could be the last, best chance for Republicans to win a seat on DC’s 13-member city council. Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than ten to one in the nation’s capital. There are about 30,000 Republicans to more than 350,000 registered Democrats, according to the Board of Elections.

GOP candidates don’t stand a chance in general elections. But next week’s contest is a special election—a free-for-all, a popularity contest—where the largest vote-getter wins.

Given that calculus, Mara could have a chance, even though he faces scrutiny over late-breaking news that he signed a consulting contract to help raise funds for a private firm from his donor list. He’s a seasoned, proven, and committed politician. He’s run for council twice before. He won a seat on the school board, where he now serves as the Ward 1 representative. He’s either very ambitious or a masochist—or both.

In the 2008 primary for council, Mara knocked off Carol Schwartz, the longest-serving and last Republican on the council. No one can match Schwartz’s outsize personality, but can Mara at least fill her role of moderate Republican?

Ron Phillips, new head of the DC GOP, says, “There’s a Republican Party in DC now. We’re running on all cylinders.”

In past decades, the local Republican organization was all white in a majority black city, roped off in Georgetown, seen as elitist and out of touch. Phillips has endeavored to broaden both its appeal and its base. He’s brought African-Americans and log cabin Republicans to leadership positions. He says he’s brought in $25,000 from the RNC.

Here’s why Phillips is optimistic:

  • He’s mailed absentee ballot request forms to 17,000 Republican voters; 1,700 have asked for ballots.
  • The local GOP has set up phone banks to encourage its 30,000 members to vote.
  • Phillips says about 15,000 Republicans came out in the general election to vote for Mitt Romney. It was a purely symbolic act, since DC would go for Obama nine to one. “If they would show up for what was essentially a protest vote,” he says, “why not when their votes count? These are the people I’m talking to. We’re mailing. We’re phoning.”

But if Mara and Phillips get no response, the local Republican party will return to its roots: irrelevancy.

  • thecomiss

    Finally an election where Mara will get beaten again. After April 24th we won't have to hear he excuses for lobbying, for selling his donor list for personal gain and the many lies over the source of his income. Mara is a sleazy GOPer forM better than the famous "Buddy Cianci" of RI political fame who spent 6 years in a federal prison for the same things Mara is doing today! This election will clearly be won by Anita Bonds, the only one with a 35+ years record of public service to all residents of DC

  • disqus_6zz82yE4Jy

    Mara is a GAY Republican, double whammy, and the problem with being a gay republican is this, they are afraid to stand up to their own party and will watch them and support against gay right's issues.You just simply can't be gay and work for someone that wants to take away your fundamental rights

  • DC_daddy

    This story makes a lot of sense...If you are an out-of-touch suburban reader with fantasies that the Republican brand is not toxic in DC.

    Elissa Silverman is the most viable alternative to the real establishment candidate, Anita Bonds, who muscled her way onto the Council and has no policy ideas. Elissa is smart, tough, and thoughtful. And she has not made money off the city or off donor lists the way her opponents have. She should win purely by being the most likely Council candidate to stay out of jail. Sad, but that's a criterion.

    Mara does not have a chance. DC hates Republicans because national Republicans hate DC. Ralph Nader got more votes in DC than George W. Bush did. Think about that. No Republican has beaten a Democrat in DC in something like 15 years and even a multi-candidate field will not change that. Mara knocked off Carol Schwartz in a primary and went on to lose. Even popular at-large Council Member David Catania had the sense to dump the GOP label. Dream on, suburban Republicans, but Pat Mara will lose his fourth Council bid on Tuesday.

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