Washingtonians have spent much of the last fifteen years witnessing a construction boom happen in real time. How will these buildings look to us a generation from now? We consulted with design experts and came up with a few candidates for the most memorable buildings of recent vintage, as well as the ones we'd rather forget.
This is an excerpt from our package of articles about what Washington will look like over the next few decades. For the full package, see our April 2015 issue—on newsstands now, or purchase the digital edition optimized for your tablet here—and come back to the website for more stories over the next few weeks.
Lindsay Arnold is 30 years old and done with life in the suburbs. “In Fairfax, there was this all-consuming hustle and bustle,” Arnold says. “The daily grind started getting to us.” Last year, she and her husband packed up their townhouse just outside Burke and bought a new home with customized features that’s even farther from their Washington jobs: in Stafford County, Virginia.
Stafford, the county seat, is 42 miles from the District. It’s a quiet town of tree-lined streets and white picket fences. George Washington lived in the area as a boy more than 250 years ago. Today the county’s slogan is “Where history meets the promise of tomorrow.” Since moving there last August, Arnold and her husband have fallen in love with their new community—its charming past, its quiet feel, the outdoorsy activities that are suddenly right in their back yard.
The couple is an example of an archetype that doesn’t get much attention these days: New Exurbanites, people for whom the past decade’s defining changes in traditional Washington suburbs—the galloping development of condos in downtown Rockville, say—represent peril, not promise. Like generations of Americans before them, they’re lighting out for the country in search of the perceived tranquility that not so long ago drew people to Ashburn or Germantown.
And by 2040, they’re expected to have a lot of company.
To New Exurbanites, the traditional suburbs—like the central city before them—feel full. Arlington County is now home to 229,302 people, Fairfax County to 1,118,884. It’s “saturated,” says Sue Smith, a real-estate agent in Northern Virginia for 27 years. So they trek to once-distant areas: Stafford and Spotsylvania counties and Winchester in Virginia and Frederick County in Maryland. Over the coming years, an increasing number of people settling these exurbs will be millennials, like Lindsay Arnold, and the generation that follows.
That’s not what you’d expect if you’ve been reading headlines. The prevailing wisdom about millennials is that they’re wedded to urban-style living—even in the suburbs—with craft breweries and yoga studios on every other corner and a Trader Joe’s within walking distance. But in Washington, many of the youngest homebuyers are hewing to the same patterns their parents did, according to Lisa Sturtevant, executive director of Washington’s Center for Housing Policy, the research arm of the nonprofit National Housing Conference. “The suburbs are ripe for a rebirth,” Sturtevant says. “Despite everything you hear about cities, people want a single-family home.”
Of all the exurbs primed for explosive growth over the next several decades, none has anything on Stafford County. According to the University of Virginia’s Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service—which has prepared population forecasts for the whole state out to 2040—Stafford will see a 141-percent jump in population by then compared with 2014, or an average of 5 percent a year. (Arlington, the inner-ring suburb most packed with millennials today, is predicted to decrease by 14 percent over the same period.) Stafford County’s planning department anticipates a less aggressive rise than UVA does: roughly 2 percent a year. But that calculation still puts an enormous number of people into a county that currently has just 138,230 residents.
What’s spurring the growth? The Marine base at Quantico is nearby, and new amenities—such as the forthcoming 58-acre Embrey Mill Park’s lighted fields, swimming pools, and indoor recreation center—are drawing buyers. Swaths of empty land combined with friendly zoning laws mean all kinds of options for prospective homeowners. “You can get 100 acres and build a house on it if you’d like,” says Stafford County administrator Anthony Romanello, “or you can live on a neighborhood street in true suburbia.”
There’s something else: The high-occupancy toll (HOT) lanes on I-95 that begin near Springfield end in Stafford. That makes it manageable for drivers shuttling to DC every day. “They say commuting from these distances is the same as Forrest Gump—you never know what you’re going to get,” says Long & Foster agent Brooke Miller. “It could take one hour or three, but the stability of a HOT lane is what people want.”
Lindsay Arnold’s husband uses the HOT lanes when he carpools to his federal job in DC. It takes him around 50 minutes. There’s also a nearby VRE station that delivers him to Union Station in about an hour and 20 minutes. Lindsay commutes to McLean for her job as an office manager at a private consulting firm, using Google Maps to judge the traffic and the best time to leave. It’s more of a process than when they lived in Fairfax, but overall it’s actually a wash. “I was averaging the same kind of time I am now,” she says.
Accessibility to the District is also a big reason Maryland’s Frederick County, 43 miles northwest of DC, is expected to grow 38 percent by 2040, according to the state Department of Planning. Much of the current action is in Monrovia, a crossroads town sitting between I-70, which leads to Baltimore, and I-270, which spits workers onto the Beltway. Michael Kurtianyk, president of the Frederick County Association of Realtors, predicts a lot more growth for a small city southwest of Monrovia—Brunswick, where there’s a MARC station for DC commuters.
In the other Frederick County—Virginia—UVA’s forecasts have the population jumping 78 percent, from 82,059 today to 145,938 in 2040. “Winchester is going to become the new Leesburg,” says real-estate agent Sue Smith. Winchester Medical Center finished a $161-million expansion not long ago, attracting doctors and health-care workers to the area. Nearby, in the vicinity of Stephens City, K. Hovnanian Homes has just finished a new phase of its 396-home exurban development, Canter Estates. The 69 new properties start at $294,990, and marketing manager Chelsea Payson says most come with a home office or library, convenient for the frequent teleworker who can’t make the 79-mile commute to DC each day.
Those features wouldn’t have been a given in the exurbs settled 30 years ago. Likewise the shared neighborhood pools and rec centers of today. Whereas the previous generation expected a golf course at their exurb’s center, tomorrow’s buyers seem to be more whole-health-focused. Just look at Willowsford, a 4,000-acre development about ten miles from Dulles Airport that’s expected to bring more new residents into Loudoun County than many of the new Silver Line developments cropping up along the new Metro route.
Willowsford has 20-plus miles of trails, community centers, pools, parks—and a 300-acre farm that serves as a central gathering point. The development hosts cooking classes, chef demos, and pop-up restaurants using the fresh produce grown on-site, with appearances by the likes of chefs Mike Isabella and Bryan Voltaggio. In other words, it’s not selling itself as a small town. Rather, like an updated version of yesteryear’s suburbs, it’s playing up the amenities of a metropolitan area—minus the crowds.
“It’s not something I would have expected living in a giant community in Loudoun County,” says Daryoush Mansouri, who moved to Willowsford from Capitol Hill with his wife and kids in 2013. Yet being able to pick up tomatoes and potatoes from the CSA run out of the farm is exactly what attracted them.
Twenty or 30 years from now, if Stafford County and Stephens City and Brunswick feel as crowded and frenetic as parts of Ashburn and Fairfax County do today, it’s not hard to imagine that exurbanites there will extend the Washington region even farther.
“I think it’s natural—it’s eventually going to happen,” says Maggie Johnston, who moved from Ashburn to Middleburg in 2013. “All cities at one point were farms.”
Staff writer Michael J. Gaynor can be reached at email@example.com.
This article appears in our April 2015 issue of Washingtonian.
This is one of the first excerpts from our package of articles about what Washington will look like over the next few decades. For the full package, see our April 2015 issue—on newsstands now, or purchase the digital edition optimized for your tablet here—and come back to the website for more stories over the next few weeks.
Which local industries will create the most jobs over the next three decades? We posed that question to Stephen Fuller, a George Mason University professor who specializes in the Washington economy. Here are his predictions for the next 30 years.
1. Professional and business services
Even if some government work dries up, private-sector clients will keep lawyers, lobbyists, and consultants plenty busy.
- 707,000 jobs in 2014
- 1.5 million jobs by 2044
Home construction, Fuller says, will jump sharply before returning to a long-term trend of moderate but steady growth.
- 147,000 jobs in 2014
- 264,000 jobs by 2044
The needs of our growing population will create additional jobs for local health and education workers.
- 398,000 jobs in 2014
- 472,000 jobs by 2044
The region’s emergence as a global commerce center will give the hospitality industry a whole new set of business-traveler customers.
- 298,000 jobs in 2014
- 384,000 jobs by 2044
This article appears in our April 2015 issue of Washingtonian.
District officials are keen on the site of Walter Reed Army Medical Center redeveloping into a residential and commercial hub that kickstarts the neighborhoods along upper Georgia Avenue, Northwest, but recently, Mayor Vince Gray and others have started to worry that the State Department will torpedo the plans in a land grab.
When Walter Reed closed in 2011, the federal Base Realignment and Closing process split the 110-acre hospital site between DC and the State Department. The city was awarded 67 acres, while the State Department received the remainder, facing 16th Street, Northwest, to use as a new campus for embassies. But with nearly a year remaining before the Army turns over the keys, DC and the State Department are haggling over land, with Children's National Medical Center and possibly upper Northwest's economic vitality in the middle.
Here's the backstory: Children's wants a 13.2-acre slice of Walter Reed for a new genetics research facility. It was a partner in a development bid presented by Roadside Development, one of the applicants for the master contract the DC government considered last year for its side of Walter Reed. But after the District went with a team comprised of Hines, Urban Atlantic, and Triden, Children's took its case directly to Congress. Washington Business Journal reported in September that the hospital got language inserted into a fiscal 2015 defense spending bill for an immediate transfer of several Walter Reed buildings, including the eight-story Building 54, all of which are on the side of the campus slated for the State Department.
But the State Department is responding by asking the Army to redraw the Walter Reed division again to replace the 13.2 acres it stands to lose to Children's with a chunk of the DC turf, a move Gray and other city officials say would effectively ruin the redevelopment plans.
“Such a change would drastically shrink the land area the District would receive and would have a devastating impact on the District’s ability to deliver on the priorities the Congress, the Army, and our residents have expressed," Gray writes in a letter to Army Secretary John McHugh.
The Hines-led development group plans to turn the District's side of Walter Reed into 2,000 new housing units and 250,000 square feet of retail, including a grocery store, and a hotel. There are also plans to for a medical facility, but no specific hospital group is attached to the project. Hines currently plans to build 318 affordable units, some of which would be set aside for homeless veterans. In his letter, Gray writes that the affordable units would be most threatened by downsizing the city's project.
A mayor's office staffer with direct knowledge of the Walter Reed process tells Washingtonian the fallout could be much more severe, possibly to the point of sending the city back to step one. The lame-duck Gray administration is trying to leave its successors a legislative package concerning Walter Reed to send to the DC Council next year, but an Army decision to accommodate the State Department's sudden request would blow up the project by forcing the city to reopen its land reuse process. That would delay Walter Reed's development by three to five years and risk prompting the Hines team to walk away from the site.
In his letter, Gray writes the Army can assauge things by guaranteeing the District its full 67 acres. He also suggests that if the Army can't figure out how to make the State Department happy with just 30 acres, it consider giving the whole thing to DC.
Read Gray's letter below:
Find Benjamin Freed on Twitter at @brfreed.
It’s official: The District will no longer be home to Federal Bureau of Investigation.
Instead, the bureau’s next headquarters will be suburban, according to a short list of potential sites released Tuesday by the General Services Administration that includes plots in Greenbelt, Landover, and Springfield.
Since the FBI announced plans in 2012 to leave the hulking, brutalist Hoover Building on Pennsylvania Avenue, Northwest, local jurisdictions have scrambled to win the agency’s favor. The FBI is desperate to consolidate more than 11,000 regional employees—currently spread across 20 sites—on a single campus, and the Hoover Building, home to about 5,800 of those workers, is showing its age after 39 years as an eyesore squatting on Washington’s most famous street.
While today’s shortlist cements it, the FBI’s departure to the suburbs was telegraphed by its requirements for a new headquarters: a plot of at least 50 acres big enough to hold a 2.1 million-square-foot building, parking, and other ancillary facilities that’s also within two and a half miles of the Capital Beltway and two miles of a Metro station.
The District’s best offer when the GSA started taking proposals in March 2013 was 40 acres on Poplar Point, an empty swath of Southeast that has frequently been touted as one of the city’s last remaining opportunities for high-value waterfront development. Republic Properties, a large private development firm, floated a tract a few blocks behind Union Station that would have displaced another federal building.
Besides wide-open spaces, the FBI also wants its new headquarters to be a fortress behind a wide security perimeter and without “close proximity to community facilities,” as the federal government’s request for expressions of interest read.
Poplar Point proved too close to densely populated Anacostia, while the site behind Union Station would be neighbored on every side. The FBI’s desire for heavily armed isolation was one of the factors that led Victor Hoskins, DC’s former deputy mayor for planning and economic development, to tell the GSA last November that the District was effectively rendered ineligible to keep the bureau within its borders.
The sites announced today, by contrast, fit the FBI’s wish-list to a T. Greenbelt’s 82-acre plot is mostly occupied right now by parking for the nearby Metro station. The Landover Mall was demolished in 2006, leaving 88 acres of open space; and the Springfield site would replace a GSA warehouse and land owned by Boston Properties.
Prince George’s County has been making the hard sell for Greenbelt, offering $112 million in subsidies to the firm that would eventually develop the site for the FBI, according to the Washington Post. Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley, Senators Barbara Mikulski and Ben Cardin, Representatives Steny Hoyer and Donna Edwards, and Prince George’s County Executive Rushern Baker already have a celebratory press conference scheduled for this afternoon.
But DC, home to the FBI for 106 years, shouldn’t feel like a big loser. While the District stands to forfeit $9.2 million in tax revenue in the short term, it will gain much more than that back when the Hoover Building, which takes up 6.7 acres and an entire city block, is knocked down and redeveloped, especially if its replacement is a taxable property. A report issued last year by Natwar Gandhi, then DC’s chief financial officer, suggested a privately owned, mixed-use development could generate $28 million in new annual revenue, along with several hundred new taxpaying residents. As a federal building, the Hoover Building’s only economic contribution to the District is the sales taxes FBI employees pay when they go off-campus.
“We are happy to see the solicitation process is moving along and look forward to the opportunity to redevelop the site along Pennsylvania Avenue,” reads a statement today from Jeff Miller, the current deputy mayor for economic development.
Fiscal projections aside, the FBI leaving suits city and federal planners’ desired future for Pennsylvania Avenue. With the Old Post Office turned over to the Trumps to transform into a super-luxury hotel, the roadway that’s purportedly “America’s Main Street” is about to get a jolt of commercial activity it sorely lacks. When the GSA floats 935 Pennsylvania Avenue on the real-estate market, as it has said it intends, developers will undoubtedly jump all over each other to claim the sexy address while local officials await a potential windfall that will fill city coffers a lot more than law-enforcement sentimentality will.
Find Benjamin Freed on Twitter at @brfreed.
After looking for a new home for more than a year, the Washington Post has finally settled on new digs just three blocks from its longtime headquarters, signing a lease at 1301 K Street, Northwest, the newspaper announced Friday.
The Post hinted at the deal on April 1, when it signed a letter of intent with Hines, which owns the 626,000-square foot, nearly block-long building overlooking Franklin Square. Posties don’t need to pack up their desks at 1150 15th Street just yet; the paper won’t be moving until 2016, Post spokeswoman Kris Coratti writes in an email.
After more than 60 years at 15th and L, the Post announced its intention to move in February 2013, six months before Amazon boss Jeff Bezos bought the paper. Although the Post’s search included on-the-rise neighborhoods like NoMa, Eckington, and Navy Yard, Posties will be relieved to know their commutes and favorite lunch spots don’t have to change.
Bezos’s purchase did not include the Post’s current headquarters, which the Graham family sold, along with two adjacent buildings, to Carr Properties for $159 million in November. Graham Holdings is also leaving the neighborhood, and will land in Rosslyn in August.
Coratti says the Post is not disclosing how much of the new building it will occupy, but it will likely be much less than the 340,000 square feet that the Post’s current headquarters comprises. (Cleaved from the Graham family’s other holdings, Bezos’s Post is a stand-alone enterprise.) Upon launching the real-estate search last year, Post publisher Katharine Weymouth said the paper would seek space that’s “a bit lighter.”
Over the next several years, a massive mixed-use development called Capitol Crossing will rise on a platform built across a sunken portion of I-395 near Judiciary Square. The $1.3-billion project will reunite the east/west axis of Pierre L’Enfant’s plan for the District—now divided by a highway that DC Council member Tommy Wells once called “the scar downtown.”
In late March, the developer, Property Group Partners, will begin digging up water pipes and moving power lines and other utilities. The area’s infrastructure will undergo a $20-million upgrade.
Hover over a number for details.
Illustration by Todd Detwiler.
This article appears in the April 2014 issue of Washingtonian.
The argument over the definition of “gentrification” never ends, but in its purest form, the term is associated with rising residential property values, and there’s no arguing that it’s happening in Washington to a greater degree than most other US cities.
In fact, according to figures put out last year by the Federal Reserve of Cleveland, DC had the fifth-highest gentrification pressure—trailing Boston, Seattle, New York, and San Francisco—with 35 percent of neighborhoods going from the bottom half of home prices to the top half over the past decade.
Affordable housing for city-dwellers, or the lack thereof, is also one of the biggest issues in this year’s DC mayoral race, with Mayor Vince Gray boasting about his administration’s spending $187 million on housing programs over the last 18 months, or challengers like Muriel Bowser and Andy Shallal saying they’d spend $100 million every year.
The Office of the Chief Financial Officer published today the freshest look at where housing prices are headed, and most neighborhoods continue to go up, according to the proposed tax assessments for fiscal year 2015. The biggest jump came in Northeast DC’s Trinidad, where residential tax assessments are projected to rise 24 percent, followed by Petworth (18 percent), Brookland (17 percent), Columbia Heights (16 percent), and LeDroit Park (15 percent).
The list of leading neighborhoods isn’t terribly surprising. Trinidad borders the ever-popular (and someday to be streetcar-connected) H St., NE, corridor, Columbia Heights and Petworth have been adding new residential projects and neighborhood amenities for several years, and Brookland is starting to experience a similar transformation with the construction of high-end developments like Monroe Street Market. And all of those neighborhoods had far different profiles than the beginning of the Cleveland Fed’s data set.
But with some residents feeling increasingly “squeezed out” by the rising costs of living, whoever winds up as DC’s next mayor will need to make affordable housing a budget priority. There’s at least one silver lining in the tax assessment report, though: Newly installed CFO Jeffrey DeWitt says the city has a total residential property tax base of nearly $98 billion in fiscal 2015 an increase of more than 8 percent over fiscal 2014.
Since launching in April with a $200,000 grant from the District, the “start-up accelerator” 1776, in downtown DC, has outpaced other local tech incubators like Acceleprise and AOL’s Fishbowl Labs—1776 is currently hosting some 185 companies, with another 500 applications pending. DC’s niche, it turns out, is developing high-tech solutions to policy problems, which takes more than capital.
“It’s not as simple as putting the consumer app out and letting it go viral,” says Donna Harris, who founded 1776 with Evan Burfield. “You need to know the regulatory environment, and strategies you can use to scale.” In early 2014, the company is launching Ventures, a program to help members expand their customer base, with 1776 taking a cut of resulting profits.
Here’s a look at a few tenants hoping to make it big.
Not everyone at 1776 is a wonk, unless you count dating wonks: Hinge’s app matches users based on Facebook profiles. Having recently secured $4 million in funds, however, Hinge is moving to New York’s Silicon Alley. “If this were education or health, we’d stay,” CEO Justin McLeod says. “It was really useful to grow a company here.” Why? In New York and San Francisco, he explains, digital hyper-sophisticates will sink you before you begin.
This public-transit app founded by two West Point graduates shows users nearby Metro stations, bus lines, Capital Bike-share stations, and car-sharing companies, along with the estimated time and cost of a trip. Part of 1776’s appeal was that the lights are always on. Says cofounder Joseph Kopser: “Transportation is a 24-hour, seven-day-a-week job.”
CEO Douglas Naegele (above)wants to demystify the confusing instructions preop patients have to follow in the hospital, using a smartphone app that reduces them to an easy checklist. Naegele and four employees will launch their app in three hospitals (though none yet in Washington). Infield Health worked out of its own space for four years, developing programs such as smoking cessation via text message, but Naegele says: “I get huge benefits from being in a room with 12 health-IT firms.”
Flat World Knowledge
One of 1776’s biggest tenants—with more than 30 employees and $26.2 million in funding, according to CrunchBase—Flat World Knowledge moved to Washington from New York to expand its digital college-textbook business. Now the firm—which is about to “graduate” from 1776 by moving into its own office—is branching into granting business degrees in partnership with an accredited college; courses are delivered by tablet computer.
All photographs by Andrew Propp.
This article appears in the January 2014 issue of The Washingtonian.