For Nats fans, now is the time to soak it all in. A pennant race, a late-summer ritual
enjoyed in many cities across the US, has hit DC.
For the next six weeks, everyone who owns a Curly W
hat or can provide an informed
opinion on the Great Stephen Strasburg Shutdown Debate
will be watching games, checking scores, and basically living
and dying with every
pitch, foul ball, and home run that comes out of the NL East.
Today, August 23, the Nats have the best record in all of baseball at 77-47. They
are a staggering 30 games over .500, and after taking two of three games from the
Atlanta Braves, the Nats sit with a comfortable six-game lead in the National League
In 2012, winning the NL East comes with far greater importance than in previous years.
Major League Baseball, in their constant attempt to act hip, changed the playoff structure
to include two wild-card teams. The two wild cards will then play a single do-or-die
playoff game to advance to the next round of the playoffs.
A 162-game regular season decided by a single game. Makes no sense. But again, this
To avoid the purgatory of the wild-card play-in game,
the Nats simply need to continue
to win at their current pace. And they should. According to
the Nats have an almost 100 percent chance of making the
playoffs. That’s great, but
it does not guarantee winning the division.
Baseball Prospectus also gives the Braves an 89 percent chance of making the playoffs.
Diving deeper, BP projects the Nats to win 98 games, an incredible feat. Less encouraging,
though, is that the Braves are predicted to win 92 games. One rough road trip or a
few poor pitching outings, and the Nats could lose that cushion.
Full disclosure: I am being very greedy here. The Nats have ranged from awful to interesting
since their inception in DC. Here they sit as a virtual lock for playoff baseball,
and I want to make sure they win the division.
I admit to greed, but I’ll channel my inner Gordon Gecko
and say it’s for the greater good. For the Nats to accomplish all they can, to bring
this city a National League pennant or, even more, a World Series trophy, winning
the division presents a much more realistic road.
In a one-game playoff, anything can happen. A pitcher can have an off night. Hitters
can press, sensing the pressure to deliver, and get out of a rhythm. After a remarkable
season, the Nats deserve at least a full playoff series, not some abbreviated marketing
gimmick brought to us by the same MLB officials who basically endorsed steroids for
Some will see the Nats’ playoff predictions and determine October baseball inevitable.
But in baseball, no lead is ever safe. Just five short years ago, in the same division,
the New York Mets blew
a seven-game division lead with just 17 games to play. Think about that for a second:
up seven games with just 17 to play. The Nats hold a smaller lead and still have 38
games remaining on the schedule.
Collapses happen this time of year. Remember the Red
Sox last year and the infamous clubhouse full of fried chicken and beer? Weird things
transpire in baseball, and
as Nats fans, let’s not start counting our (non-fried)
That’s what will make the next six weeks of baseball
so great. The Braves won’t give
up, and the Nats better not let up. Every pitch matters. Every
at-bat matters. Ignore
the nonsensical ravings from out-of-towners about what should happen with Strasburg,
and tune in to what happens
on the field.
Most Washington residents have never experienced a pennant race. Let’s enjoy it.
JP Finlay is a lifelong fan of Washington sports. Some of his fondest memories are
of RFK Stadium and Redskins Super Bowl parades. Likes: hot dogs,
Arrested Development, the beach. Dislikes: Duke, onions, The Big Bang Theory. Find him on Twitter @jpfinlay.